Forum Discussion

AllyJay's avatar
AllyJay
Member
8 years ago

My philosophical ponderings on percentages.

How meaningful is two or three percent? Well, I guess what it's a percentage of. A 2-3% discount on a $20.00 pair of sandals would be 40cents - 60cents....not really worth the bother of quibbling at the till. If, however, one was talking about 2-3% of children at a local primary school with a student count of 1000 kids, well then that would be 20 - 30 precious children. Let's say this this school was notified that a deadly virus was going to strike that school in a years time. They were also told that a vaccine was available to protect the children. There were side effects, some mild, as in redness and mild stiffness at the injection site. Some more severe, such as vomiting, rashes and the like. Even more severe could include hearing loss or nerve damage. If the children were not vaccinated, 2-3% of them would die. What a choice for the parents. For those who did vaccinate, and their children were left with permanent after effects, and worse, for those who didn't, and their children died. Each decision by the parents is theirs alone to make, there is no right or wrong one. However I would rather hold the hand of my living (even if permanently affected) child as we walk past the cemetery with the graves of thirty of his or her schoolmates.
  • HIT's avatar
    HIT
    Member
    8 years ago
    I suppose I could count myself lucky, maybe....  My percentages were fairly easy to make a decision with - no treatment you will probably die.  No hercepton but rest of treatment 60% chance of reoccurrence.  Treatment and hercepton 30% chance of reoccurrence.  It wasn't a hard decision!!!  Deciding to close my mouth whilst doing a "Homer" impersonation was a harder decision.  At least I was numb until I got home then the sledge hammer dropped on me.



  • Zoffiel's avatar
    Zoffiel
    Member
    8 years ago
    Things get even more confusing when you start looking at where the data that informs this percentage estimate comes from. I don't know that most scientific studies would be proud of the sort of samples that 'Predict', for example, uses.

    If you do have a research mind, have a look at the way your oncologist comes up with the figures. I'm not arguing that things are right or wrong, but for me there is some WTF? stuff that, to this point, I have just had to accept as being the best figures available.
  • Cyclo's avatar
    Cyclo
    Member
    8 years ago
    I paid 3k for a prosigna test that revealed  chemo would provide a 3% protection against bc coming back so for me a benefit of 3% was not worth the grief of chemo and this was supported by the onco so for me 3% was neither hear nor there statistically that is 
  • Afraser's avatar
    Afraser
    Member
    8 years ago
    I suspect that, in addition to the quantum, it depends whether the small percentage affects unknown persons or those close to you. We can rejoice in "only" 4% unemployment unless it's us or our children who are unable to find paid work. There are those facing these sorts of percentages who still choose not to vaccinate (and possibly spread the virus). What constitutes an unacceptable risk is a highly individual thing, and entirely personal except when it can impact harmfully on others. Even that is sometimes hard to calculate.